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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a simple script. It frequently acts as a type of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your team in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a direct path: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic improvement receives the prize. However, it sparks an annual argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent leadership or simply the most shocking shock.

Yet the current competition is distinctly unique. The pool of nominees is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners declining and longtime strugglers improving collectively. In an ordinary season, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a wild and entertaining season, he's up against several other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical vote ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his rare talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained performance. With his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system rather than going rogue. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that springs wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to conjure big plays out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost every decision – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the building with the immense hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme genius but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a ordinary season, he would be the clear-cut choice. Yet this is not a normal year!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for long-term winning. However he falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has engineered a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the leadership stuff, which wasn't a given after his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. From the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason setback had the team wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting reliable ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still